Here's the deal, I used to blog pretty much daily as I believed it made a difference. People were listening. I did and still believe I was reporting accurately on fundamentals but I am now convinced that government stimulus and other factors can mask the fundamentals for a very long time. How long - years easily, and I fear perhaps much longer. And I am also convinced our government and others are hell bent on building a new bubble. I am not saying their intent is to build a bubble, just that this is what they are doing whether they realize or not. And so here we are left looking at tea leaves on (a) what the fundamentals say and (b) how does all the noise from government stimulus and actions by other interested players affect the outcome. I can only speak to (a) and note that eventually - in time - (a) always wins out. How long only time will tell.

So on (a) I still see nasty fundamentals. Housing still in a slump,with foreclosures still high, commercial real estate still in the slumps, unemployment still high, mortgage rates rising, and few fundamental reasons for short term optimism. And with government stimulus slowly being taken away, you guess what is about to happen.

Disclosures: None.