I do not have time for a full post and do not need it as I am linking an important piece by John Mauldin that tells you a lot more than I ever could. Please read it. You may not understand all the stats - I didn't - but the message is pretty clear.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/211983-the-risk-of-recession?source=email
The author is not a financial advisor, economist, broker or anyone who knows anything about anything. I am just fascinated with the economic and financial world around us and seek to bring together and distill the thoughts of those who know better than me.
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