"EU Splitting?
A full two years ago I posted a prediction that the EU will break up. I think I called it the time the EU losing the U. This was a post by me that got a lot of negative feedback then- as in it was an insane proposition. Let me simply say, I stand by my original proposition:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204010604576592830020996482.html "
And this post was referring back to a prediction I made at the end of 2008 for the year ahead. I guess as most men, I was a bit premature:
"EU with no U. The strains on the EU have never been greater and Germany's reluctance to play ball with the rest of the union will, in my opinion, cause a rift that cannot be fixed. I doubt the EU will disband in 2009, but pressures will reach a critical point and it may well happen in 2010."
But alas, I must admit that my belief on the EU splitting was tied pretty much wholly to its financial structure. Britain's vote was based on this in part no doubt, but I think the man or woman on the street is voting more for other reasons, like a desire to better control their borders and not wanting to cede as much control over their lives to the EU. In scary times, folks like to have that old self-determination thingy, for better or worse, and letting the likes of Angela Merkel have a lot of influence over their lives was probably not sitting well. And for Britain, I am thinking it is for the better - as apparently 52% of the people in Britain think as well.
https://mises.org/blog/brexit-individualism-nationalism-globalism-0
On the economic front, for example, you might have noticed a curious thing (curious that is for the Remain crowd); the UK stock market - FTSE 100 - was only down a tad over 3% (after an initial dive of 6%). Indeed, it survived the day better than the DOW. And compared to other EU stock markets, it ruled. The German DAX 100 sank nearly 7% and the French CAC 40 was down a whopping 8%. This could just be attributable to the pound dropping in a way Trump would describe as yuuuuge, which should strongly support UK exports. I mean, they do have exports don't they. Oh yeah, Rolls Royce is in Britain. They also make, uh, something else I am sure, like beer. Whatever they make just got cheaper compared to most other currencies.
This is not to say the rest of EU will not impose trade barriers like tariffs and the like, but that is a two-way street and Britain did represent nearly fifth of the entire EU economy. This will indeed be interesting to watch.
It will be especially interesting to see if other EU members follow the British lead, which I expect will indeed happen. There are a bunch of unhappy voters in various countries it seems as elections in other parts of the EU over the past couple of years reflect a growing influence of the same type of sentiment the British populace just demonstrated. Discontent voters are obviously making their voices heard on this side of the pond as well. Interesting times.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204010604576592830020996482.html "
And this post was referring back to a prediction I made at the end of 2008 for the year ahead. I guess as most men, I was a bit premature:
"EU with no U. The strains on the EU have never been greater and Germany's reluctance to play ball with the rest of the union will, in my opinion, cause a rift that cannot be fixed. I doubt the EU will disband in 2009, but pressures will reach a critical point and it may well happen in 2010."
But alas, I must admit that my belief on the EU splitting was tied pretty much wholly to its financial structure. Britain's vote was based on this in part no doubt, but I think the man or woman on the street is voting more for other reasons, like a desire to better control their borders and not wanting to cede as much control over their lives to the EU. In scary times, folks like to have that old self-determination thingy, for better or worse, and letting the likes of Angela Merkel have a lot of influence over their lives was probably not sitting well. And for Britain, I am thinking it is for the better - as apparently 52% of the people in Britain think as well.
https://mises.org/blog/brexit-individualism-nationalism-globalism-0
On the economic front, for example, you might have noticed a curious thing (curious that is for the Remain crowd); the UK stock market - FTSE 100 - was only down a tad over 3% (after an initial dive of 6%). Indeed, it survived the day better than the DOW. And compared to other EU stock markets, it ruled. The German DAX 100 sank nearly 7% and the French CAC 40 was down a whopping 8%. This could just be attributable to the pound dropping in a way Trump would describe as yuuuuge, which should strongly support UK exports. I mean, they do have exports don't they. Oh yeah, Rolls Royce is in Britain. They also make, uh, something else I am sure, like beer. Whatever they make just got cheaper compared to most other currencies.
This is not to say the rest of EU will not impose trade barriers like tariffs and the like, but that is a two-way street and Britain did represent nearly fifth of the entire EU economy. This will indeed be interesting to watch.
It will be especially interesting to see if other EU members follow the British lead, which I expect will indeed happen. There are a bunch of unhappy voters in various countries it seems as elections in other parts of the EU over the past couple of years reflect a growing influence of the same type of sentiment the British populace just demonstrated. Discontent voters are obviously making their voices heard on this side of the pond as well. Interesting times.
No comments:
Post a Comment