I'll Take The Over

In the linked article Mish Shedlock, a major proponent of automation, posits that millions of long haul trucking jobs will vanish due to automation by the 2022-2024 timeframe.  He queries readers whether they agree or thinks it will be sooner or later.  I am taking the over but let me qualify my vote.  Hey, I am an attorney and we caveat everything.

https://mishtalk.com/2016/08/16/ford-targets-2021-for-mass-market-self-driving-car-2021-a-near-certainty/

I do believe, as Mish suggests, that Interstate highways are a much easier obstacle for automation to overcome.  For certain areas of the country where foul weather is not common, highways are well marked and long stretches exist without urban areas and congestion, automated trucking is much more likely to occur earlier in time.  Still, I think it will be quite limited at first and will not lead to millions of jobs lost.  Most trucking, I assume, is in more congested areas of the country as that is where the goods ultimately need to go.

You also have the need to get regulations in place.  As I noted in my recent post on automation, product liability claims can quickly cripple manufacturers if they deploy a host of vehicles before they muster regulatory protections and caps, which could easily take to 2022 or longer to get into place.  A semi tractor and trailer loaded with goods is a massive vehicle and a single multi-vehicle accident caused in part by such a vehicle can easily lead to tens of millions in liability - and in the right (or wrong) state, perhaps even hundreds of millions.  I have been involved in such litigation and it is not pleasant.  It will only take a few such accidents to set the industry back for years.

Ford, GM and others seem to be shooting for 2021 or so for fully automated cars.  Ford, I think wisely, is shooting for the ride-share or taxi market first, where individuals will not own the vehicle or need any training.  The vehicles will have no human involvement in the operation.  In a true Level 4 car, attempted human involvement increases the odds of an accident, so keeping humans in the back seat removed from any meddling is logical.  Letting riders experience the new technology one ride at a time in a taxi might ease them into acceptance.  And the manufacturer or operator of a fleet is better able to properly maintain the autonomous vehicles in operating condition and insure they get appropriate upgrades. Still, I am sticking to my guns on this one and not expecting fully autonomous cars beyond small scale beta testing any time before say 2030.  The technology will be there sooner but the other obstacles will take longer.  For more details, please visit my earlier post "Driving Me Crazy."

http://financialspiltmilk.blogspot.com/2016/07/driving-me-crazy_97.html