GDP Update

Back on August 9, I noted that the Atlanta Fed at their GDPNow site had given a preliminary forecast of third quarter GDP of 3.8% annualized.  I referred to it as Grossly Distorted Prediction and noted I would be surprised if the GDP was ultimately half that for the quarter, i.e. 1.9%.  Well, as of today, the Atlanta Fed is down to 2.4% and dropping fast.  They will continue to post third quarter numbers through October, so I might make my guesstimate after all.

https://www.frbatlanta.org/-/media/Documents/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow/RealGDPTrackingSlides.pdf

October 3 update

Now down to 2.2% after a dismal construction spending report today. 

October 7 update

2.1%