So Where From Here?

I honestly have no idea. At least short to medium term I gave up a long time ago on trying to figure it out. I focus on macro issues and the market does not. I have learned the hard way that I can be wrong for a very, very long time only to be proven right later in time after losing some money investing on my beliefs. I have made no new investments for pretty much the entire year as I am disgusted at the irrational behaviour of the markets. Ironically, I know that irrational markets are the norm so it is irrational for me to expect anything else.

So, as much as I still hope I am wrong, I fear now my macro beliefs are proving true and we have some relatively severe pain ahead. I simply see no way around it despite what our inept politicians do to stop it. More significantly - and pay attention here - I do not think we should figure out a way around it. Instead, we need to figure out a way to allow - perhaps even make- it to happen but with the least collateral damage possible. Ask Japan (my heart goes out to them with all the natural disasters this year including today) whether it makes sense to kick the can. They have been doing it for roughly 20 years, seriously 20 years. We need to take our medicine, figure a way to take out the garbage with the least pain, and move on with it. As Moody's or S&P or whoever said in its downgrade this week of the big boys - you know Bank of America, Citigroup, and WF, their downgrade was based in large part upon their belief that the U.S. government no longer considers them too big to fail and may allow them to fail in a new financial crisis; not that a new crisis will happen or the U.S. will do this but the odds have increased.

Here is my proposal, flush the toilet and get rid of the stench. Let the weak players fail and clean up the mess. When they fail, let the governments of the world build more deficits, yes more, to clean up the mess, put it behind us and let the economy start to grow again so we can put this behind us and start reducing the deficits.

And behind my recommendation is a big secret. Listen close, yes put your ear up to the screen and listen carefully as this is a major, as in do not disclose, as in Max Smart talking into his shoe phone type of secret. Ready for it, well here it is: THERE ARE A HOST OF MAJOR COMPANIES IN THIS WORLD WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CAPITAL SITTING ON THE SIDELINES WAITING TO BE PUT TO WORK BUT THEY WILL NOT DO THIS BECAUSE THERE ARE NO GOOD PLACES TO PUT IT TO WORK. TAKE OUT THE DEAD WOOD AND LET THIS CAPITAL BE PUT TO GOOD USE. THE CREATED FINANCIAL VOIDS BY TBTF COMPANIES GOING UNDER WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED. AND, BY THE WAY, SINCE NO ONE IS BORROWING ANY MORE, TELL ME EXACTLY WHAT FINANCIAL VOID EXISTS THAT WE WILL NEED TO FILL?

Just my take, sports fans.

Disclosures: None.

2 + 2 = ?

A friend of mine cornered me in the kichen this week. He knows I follow thngs financial but I suspect he does not read my blog, though he knows I do it. So he asks me, where do I think the market is going. I tell him I have no idea, and that is the truth.

Now if he bothers to read this, he will get a bit more insight. I said no idea, but that was my thought in the short term, which is what I think he was fishing for. Beyond that, however, and I have a belief.

Let me start by saying 67-70% (I have seen this range cited) of the GDP has been consumer spending in the U.S. over the past few years. Before I go on, think a minute about how any economy can support itself off of its citizens buying stuff. Stop --- give yourself time to digest this and--- let me repeat: 67-70% of our GDP over the past several years has been us buying stuff for ourselves. PLEASE STOP AND THINK ABOUT THIS A MINUTE OR TWO!!!! Most of our economy is us buying stuff. And mostly we are buying from China and other coutries. So who exactly is paying us to buy this stuff from other coutries NOW? No one, I suspect!!

And now you know the problem. We are all in big debt. We are paying it down but it is still near record levels. So we have little to spend, especially with unemployment at high levels and housing near a bottom.

But let us look at the solution. Ideally, it would be something that creates more jobs domesticaly so that we could make money to buy all this crap we have been buying to prop up 70% of the GDP. Ideally it would provide long term benefits and wages to support the economy. Well, ideal is apparently not in the cards.

Nope, we are shooting for much less than ideal. We are spending tens of billions to prop up the A-Holes who got us here. We are spending very little so far to build new jobs or support companies that will do so.

Obama was the worst vote of my lifetime. I w0uld give up my card carrying Democrat status but for my repulsion for the other side. I truly hope he wakes up soon. He needs to listen to Volcker soon!!



















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Disclosures: None