Got My Good News

Markets ended up nicely Friday, offsetting a fairly bearish week. Just par for the course these days. One index this week indicated that traders expect the market to on average move over 2% a day between now and June. In other words, lots of volatility. For some day traders, this roller coaster is a dream of opportunity. But I have to advise you, like those stunts on TV, don't try this at home. Overall, given the economy, not much of a surprise that the market is having wild gyrations. Just don't expect any sustained rally for a while. Frankly, I expect a slight trend down over time but mostly sideways movement for a few months absent a black swan event.

It's the Infrastructure Stupid

Obama used his weekly radio address to discuss some of the infrastructure measures he intends to implement. Improve roads, energy efficiency and public safety while creating jobs. Finally, we are going to be getting some bang for our buck.

I really like the way this guy is thinking. This is the perfect time to spend obscene amounts of money to achieve things we need to achieve. It supports the economy much better than the handouts to date, it builds jobs, it gives us a foot up on our future and it solves - or at least helps to solve - multiple problems at once. Wish I had thought of that.

I do think we need to support - massively - development in this country of alternative energy concepts. If we come up with the best batteries, the best solar panels, the best wind turbines, the best algae farms, the best nuclear energy technologies, etc. then we have developed high end export opportunities. We can become the country that others come to for their energy needs. It will take time and money (that we will spend either way) but it is a good thing to try to achieve. As they say - win/win.

In the interest of full disclosure, I have all of a few hundred dollars invested in an algae company.

http://change.gov/newsroom/entry/the_key_parts_of_the_jobs_plan/

Don't get me wrong here; infrastructure and other spending will drag on for years and will by no means be a quick fix. I don't mind this at all because - you can quote me on this - ain't no quick fixes to the mess we are in. This is going to hang on for the long run and a fix that makes jobs in the long run is a good thing. We have spent a bit too much time focusing on putting out fires and we should focus more on the medium and long term issues.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWVkfEb8G6z0&refer=home

While I think the plan makes sense as it addresses the problem from the bottom up, all things said, there is not a whole lot the government can do. We a reverting to mean on a variety of fronts and trying to prevent that from happening is folly. The best the government can do is try to deal with collateral damage and seek to avoid utter chaos. One off solutions to problems as the arise - such as the car industry going under - will be a necessary evil. But any thought that some grand scheme for spending trillions will correct the problem is nonsense. The truth of the matter is that the problem is in the process of correcting itself. Sometimes we don't like the taste of our medicine, but we still need to take it. Hold on to your seatbelts, however, as this problem was building for long time and will take a long time to correct. Hunker Down!

Such as the Car Industry Going Under . . .

I read today that the car industry is getting $15 billion. Less than half of what they wanted, but enough to keep them from running out of gas (pun intended) this year. My suspicion is that Congress wants to keep their feet to the fire. Let them know that they need to do whatever they can on their own and that Congress is not going to just rush in and save them. Not a bad approach overall. It gives the car companies leverage to negotiate with their creditors and unions, but on the flip side it makes third parties more hesitant to lend them credit or otherwise take a risk with them. Let me scratch that last point. Anyone with a brain is already hesitant - to say the least - to lend them credit. Heck, AAA rated companies can't get credit today, so who is going to lend to GM. Double heck, I can get more credit today than GM. So, just scratch my last comment. Let me just revert and say Congress is right to keep their feet to the fire. And other companies in the furture seeking handouts should get the same treatment. No more handouts with no strings attached to companies paying bonuses and dividends. Been there, done that and it does not work.

23 and Counting

Another Friday, another bank. The 23rd bank to go under this year is a small one in Georgia. Not a big deal. Absent some political reason, these are always announced on Fridays. I am a bit surprised we are only up to 23. The FDIC did a good job several months back, I believe in the summer for the most part, expanding offices and hiring new people, as well as bringing back retired people, to get ready for a crunch. They did have a few big ones, like IndyMac, and a few monsters that were close, like Washington Mutual and Wachovia, but overall they have been spared the worst of what they anticipated. Don't relax yet though, there is plenty more to come.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZaygdnrdX5U&refer=home

Tanta's Mortgage Pig

One of the authors of Calculated Risk, a very good blog on the real estate/mortgage/credit market died last Sunday of cancer at 47 years of age. This link leads to items she and others created to benefit cancer charities.

http://shop.ebay.com/merchant/bombtostick

Three Last Names

I provide this article because my blog is about educating and giving food for thought. The motto here is that knowledge is power. I simply seek to pass on the former. The attached is by a Brit, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, the man with three last names as his name. Parts I agree with and parts I don't, but either way, a piece worth reading and developing your own take. He does make a good comment on deflation, which we are starting. Fixed requirements like fixed mortgage payments are heavier burdens during deflationary times. Then again, other prices like gas go down to offset that burden, so go figure.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/3629806/Deflation-virus-is-moving-the-policy-test-beyond-the-1930s-extremes.html

Late, Tired, Bed, Later . . .

Short Day

Not much today as I have my company Holiday Party tonight, so my usual evening reading is preempted. But I did want to post this link to Barry Ritholtz at The Big Picture. Earlier this week he put the bailout committment to date at over $8 tillion, whereas the more commonly quoted figure of $7.4 trillion I believe comes from the New York Times. Barry's post today provides some nice graphic comparisons between what is happening today and what we spent in other key periods in history. It also compares the U.S. spending, as a percentage of GDP, to other countries. On that basis, not too bad. On some of the other comparisons, it looks really bad. Guess it's all relative.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/more-bailout-comparisons/

Job Loss

533,000 jobs lost in November, according to the Labor Department. Unemployment now up to 6.7%, its highest in 15 years. The number of jobs lost last month was the largest one month drop in 34 years. A legitimate argument can be made that the 6.7% figure is a vast understatement. The figure is massaged with Birth/Death assumptions (on companies, not people). Rather than me trying to explain it, I'll let Mike Shedlock do so. He points us to the U6 number of 12.5%, which may be more accurate. Certainly better explains the pain.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/12/jobs-contract-11th-straight-month.html

One consequence of the job loss is a further loss of taxes paid to the federal, state and local governments (hat tip Cody for pointing this out). This comes at a time when we cannot afford it. California has a $28 billion two year deficit to deal with, which is one third of all states combined. They intend to possibly start paying their bills with warrants, i.e. IOUs that pay 5% interest. Last I checked, you cannot eat a warrant. Technically you can, but it is probably not on the FDA food pyramid, so if you are trying to feed a family, you are SOL. How long do you think small mom and pop businesses are going to keep doing state work if they are only being paid in warrants? They may not have many alternatives, but they will certainly start looking for them. It is no wonder that there are reports of numerous tent cities popping up out West. And California is not alone in its pain.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/12/california-may-pay-with-ious-minnesota.html

If you are looking for some good news, and find it, let me know. Things are looking down right nasty today. If you don't believe me, check out the Bloomberg "Breaking News" headlines:

•Stocks in U.S. Fall as Payroll Drop Exceeds Estimates: Alcoa, Boeing Slide
•Employers in U.S. Cut 533,000 Jobs, Most in 34 Years, as Recession Deepens
•U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies, Foreclosures Rise to Record as Prices Plummet
•Legg Mason Cuts 8% of Jobs to Save $120 Million a Year in `Severe' Market
•Auto Industry Failure Would Be a `Disaster,' Exacerbate Crisis, Frank Says
•Merrill May Be Toughest Test for Bank of America's Serial Dealmaker Lewis
•Loan Risk Soars to Record as Global Economy Weakens, Joblessness Increases
•India Broadens Security Alert to Include Government Buildings, Refineries
•Obama Says Job Losses Point to `Urgent' Need for Economic-Stimulus Package

Bigger Not Better

I noted yesterday that big institutions becoming bigger is not necessarily a good thing (and I obviously view it as a bad thing in many cases). Well, it seems others are also viewing bigger as not necessarily better. This piece from the Economist discusses the point. It seems larger corporations are having credit issues because lenders are scared of the unknowns that are on their books. The article also notes how difficult things might become for some corporations if this downturn lasts beyond next year, especially with credit resuming its quick freeze. With Chapter 11 not an option, due to lack of DIP financing, there will be some major corporations going under the next few years, so choose your investments wisely. It would be wise to avoid companies with a lot of debt that needs to be rolled-over in the next few years. According to the article, there are a lot of them as U.S. and European companies have a trillion a year that needs to roll over each year for the next three years. For those that can roll it over, it will be at high cost and with a lot of covenants, which will put further burdens on already burdened companies.

http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=12725088

I Agree

Some may remember Robert Reich, former Secretary of Labor. If you go to his post for today, he talks about the job losses. More importantly, he talks about what he thinks we should be doing. I am posting it as I agree with what he says. I am sure he will draw comfort from me agreeing with him.

http://robertreich.blogspot.com/

Any Good News Out There?

If you find some good news, please pass it on. Only thing I could find was that oil continues its decline, which is good for some, but not for all.

Throw More Money At It

Naked Capitalism has a nice piece pointing out that throwing money at the problem in the U.S. is perhaps not the right approach. She does make a valid point that pretty much none of the objectives of same have been achieved to date. Credit is still non-existent and households largely used their "stimulus" checks for savings (which I think was the right thing for them to do). I still think the infrastructure spending is a good move as we need it anyway and, if nothing else, we come out of this with some nice infrastructure improvements. We will spend the money either way and spending it now saves money as we employ people and do not have to pay unemployment/welfare/food stamps/etc. for same. So if it needs to be done anyway, now is a perfect time. Besides, labor and commodity prices are way low, so building infrastructure now makes abundant sense. More sense than giving money to corporations that created this mess.

Nonetheless, Yves - and the others she notes - make a valid point that great depression era ideas for the U.S. do not work today as we are in a totally different situation now than we were then. Back then, we were the big exporting country and were, in fact, too dependent on our exports. Spending money internally to build internal demand, and thereby lessen the dependence on exports, made sense. Now the opposite is true. Indeed, we are in this mess because we have been spending too much internally and a lot of that has been buying imports. The cure is not to spend more.

On the flip side, China really needs to be spending some money to try to build internal demand and lessen its dependence on its exports here and elsewhere. As I noted the other day, we are not returning to the economy we had the past few years anytime soon, nor should we, so China needs to get used to a world not as hungry for its imports. Sustaining growth rates above 9%, which it needs to supply jobs, is going to be very difficult.

Yves makes another valid point about the money we are spending on all the programs here in the U.S., which I have mentioned; things are going to get ugly when those supplying the dollars to us for our bailout decide to stop supplying those dollars. China is one of the countries doing so and it needs the money itself right now.

2009 is going to be very interesting indeed.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/martin-wolf-says-big-stimulus-programs.html

Merrill Lynch Hard To Swallow - No $%@#

I am no expert at this stuff, but just studying some basic stats on subprime, Alt-A, CDSs and the like and I don't think you even need to see the books of the big financial institutions to know there is too much bad - unpredictable - stuff there to make them a wise investment. Yet the government has somewhat openly supported these toxic waste dumps merging together to move themselves from the too big to fail category to the too big to save category. And none fit better in the too big to save category now than Bank of America.

Well the Merrill Lynch merger is about to be finalized and it seems Lewis at Bank of America needs some Tums right about now. Let's see, MBNA, Countrywide Financial and Merrill Lynch all being acquired in the course of three years. Seems a bit much to digest. And now the U.S. has an institution that is the country's largest bank by assets, largest broker, largest home lender (after Feddie/Fannie) and the largest home loan servicer. You may ask how can they handle it all? I haven't the foggiest and it appears that they are starting to have their own doubts too. Be afraid, very afraid.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aB93nd4UXjvs&refer=home

They Listened!

I knew if someone of my stature said to stop giving Paulson money Congress would soon listen. Now turning off the TARP spigot seems to have bi-partisan support.

Let's rewind a bit. It seems to me just a week or two ago the Bush administration was going to leave the rest of the TARP money for the Obama administration to handle. Then this past week Paulson decided he needed to spend the rest in the 50 some days left before Obama takes office. Now Republicans and Democrats alike are not liking the idea because, it seems, no one is particularly happy with Paulson's erratic spending habits. Yes, it seems he changes his mind faster than a new born's diaper on how to spend it and the folks in Congress are having second doubts. Too bad they did not stick with their first doubts.

Seriously folks, Paulson is so clueless for someone in his position that it is embarrassing to our country. And helicopter Ben is not a whole lot better. At least Congress is now smelling the coffee. Dodd and Frank seem to be the latest to get the scent. I am not a fan of either, but so long as they are against wasting more money with Paulson, they have my support in doing so. Go for it!!

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aCCnou4rggxg&refer=home

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/paulson-may-ask-for-remaining-350.html

Penny For Your Thoughts

The heading above has two meanings. First, I am happy to announce that due to people (both of you) clicking on my site I have made one penny with Adsense. Yeah! I don't think they actually pay me until I get to $100 and this penny took a month to achieve, so not time to pop the cork just yet, but about the time I retire I might be able to afford a cork. Anyway, if I was doing this for the money, you would have to be reading someone else's blog.

The other reason for the heading is that I would love to hear from you (yes both of you) on ideas, articles of interest, news, whatever. That is what the comments section is for. I got three comments one day and was very happy. I may have written one myself, but I am still counting it. Anyway, I would like this to be a bit more interactive, so shout out.

Colder, Colder, Coldest . . .

We hide treats from my dog and she really understands the hotter/colder statements you make to guide her to the treat. I wish that is what I meant by "colder." For a month or so now I have had a side bar on this blog about the gradual thaw of credit. And it did thaw for quite a while. I believe the LIBOR improved for well over two weeks in a row. I guess all good things come to an end, despite the money we might throw at them.

Calculated Risk has been following certain credit indicators and lately they have not seen much of anything positive. Rather, it seems some signs are pointing in the wrong direction. I have seen the same story in other respected blogs and, moreover, in the stats that relate to this. This is not a good sign. I consider it as much a symptom as a anything, but symptoms let you know when you are sick.

This relates to a broader, overall, not so happy feeling I have been getting lately. Okay, I know, gut feelings are not a very professional way to decide things, and I don't recommend going on mine. I had some spicy chili yesterday, and it could be that, but I am having this hair raised sense and it is making me uneasy. No, I am not talking another 50% drop in the stock market, though I still think we will see new lows next year (if not sooner), but my sense right now is that this recession will be significantly longer than I have been expecting.

Now there are stats to support my gut, and I have reported here on a lot of them - ARMs, China, Europe, CDSs, frozen credit and the like - but this is more based on not seeing the light. "Light" as in not seeing what is going to get us out of this. I think it is pivotal that housing reach a bottom. I am not talking a false government supported bottom, but a real housing- is-affordable-and-people-with-decent-credit-want-to-buy bottom. When we get there we will overshoot because credit will be too tight and the bad economy will keep people from being able to afford much, but we will and must get there. I am just thinking right now that this day will come in 2010, at the earliest.

When we get there, whenever it is, will that be it? No, it is a small beginning. What started as a housing problem has become a world-wide contagion. There are something like three or four economies in the world today (I read this stat earlier this week) that are doing fine, and they are not economies that matter to us. Anyway, the point is, globally we and other countries have massive problems to solve and so far the solutions are often worse than the problems they are meant to solve.

All this is a long winded way of saying Noriel Roubini may be right, or even an optimist. My sense is that he is seeing something somewhat worse than what he is describing. If you watch his interviews he cites a lot of statistics and he hedges his statements on how bad it could be, but he does indicate every time it could be very, very bad.

What I fear, and I am seeing little reason not to fear it, is that this recession will go much longer than we anticipate. I can see it going five years plus, seriously. And the longer it goes the worse it will be as more and more companies get to the point where they can no longer hang on. I am mixed on this. Flushing out the weak allows the survivors to be stronger, yet the flushing part can be quite painful, especially for the families affected. Frankly, I have no desire to watch things go sideways or south for an extended period, but that is my fear. Only time will tell. I hope I am wrong!! I fear I am not.

Some friends (CL) call me chicken little, yet I think they read my blog because this year the chicken littles have mostly been right, whether we like it or not. I guess my true test will come if I am Mr. Bull at the appropriate time.

Call Me Crazy . . .

but I think the proposal Ford made to Congress sounded quite reasonable. It is a loan for $9 billion that is there simply as a backstop should they need it. They are ending bonuses for now and selling five corporate jets. They are looking at ways to raise capital on their own, including a possible sale of Volvo. They are giving taxpayers stock warrants to protect the loan being repaid, if they tap into it. They are closing down dealerships and shrinking, and they are renegotiating with the UAW. The kinds of logical things you would expect for a company on the ropes. When you compare this to the boondoggle we got with the TARP, it makes you sick.

Seriously folks, this country has way too much of its GDP tied to consumer spending and not enough tied to things like manufacturing and export. Preserving major corporations that employ hundreds of thousands of American jobs is a good thing, especially when done right. I think the loan package for Ford is a bit of a no brainer. Congress might have a bit more difficulty with GM and Chrysler, as they are more desperate for immediate cash and GM, especially, is going to be needing big bucks. It is asking for $18 billion, but will likely need more.

GM is going to need all the help it can get. It just reported November sales down 41%. Ford sales were down 31% and Toyota 33%. Kinda like driving your car (company) into a brick wall.

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/

In the interest of full disclosure, my grandfather used to work for Ford and my dad is a Detroit Tigers fan.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aJQrO7TRuSjU&refer=home

It's A New World

I was thinking about this point this morning and then saw a Bloomberg note on it. Bill Gross at Pimco noted on his company's web site that equity investors should not expect stock valuations in the future to match what they looked like before the present recession. He gives various reasons, including less use of leverage, less appetite for risk, greater government regulation and higher taxes.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aRr7ODbkNOQY&refer=home

I agree with his point but have another reason for my view, which I think is the most important to consider; the American consumer is under water. I've said it before and will again, the American consumer was at record debt levels in 2007 and until that corrects there will be no sustainable recovery.

http://captaincapitalism.blogspot.com/2007/09/household-debt-as-percent-of-gdp.html

And this is not limited to the US. Europe also has high consumer debt levels.

Yet even when we do get individuals to deleverage to an appropriate level, the economy is not returning to the pre-recession levels because those levels were inflated by the very debt that got us into trouble. Lax lending standards are not returning any time soon, so consumers here and abroad will have to learn to live within their means and probably have to increase savings to boot. We are in an economy that is over two thirds dependent on consumer spending for its GDP. That is a staggering amount. Like it or not, corporate America is not returning to the profit levels seen over the past few years for a very long time. Those levels were an illusion.

This is not to say that stocks will languish at their current lows forever. There are some nice valuations out there right now. I'm just saying that if X stock traded at $100 a share before the recession and it is now down to $40 a share, don't expect it to bounce back to $100 a share once the recession is done. Select stocks undoubtedly will return to pre-recession levels (especially those that are well capitalized and able to take advantage of this downturn by buying up other companies or assets on the cheap) but overall I don't think so. The economy was in hyper-drive before and now needs to assume a more reasoned pace. A pace that will lead to more reasoned valuations. This is a good thing.

Housing Is About to Bottom!! Not!!

I would love to tell you we have hit bottom in housing, but doing so would require me to ignore some key points. Point one is that unemployment is increasing. We have lost over 1.2 million jobs this year and the number is still rising. People without jobs cannot buy houses. People without jobs cannot pay their mortgages. People without jobs lose their houses, which then get sold in foreclosure at heavily discounted prices, which drives down real estate. It will be hard for real estate to recover with unemployment on the rise.

Point two, credit is still tight. Without Fannie and Freddie it would be pretty much non-existent. It is hard to sell a house when it is hard for the buyer to get credit.

Point three, prices are still high in relation to median income. We have come a long way toward reverting to mean, but not there just yet. And we will likely overshoot the mean, which is not uncommon in a correction.

Point four, a lot of people are underwater on their mortgages. Even if they can continue to make the payment, they may very well be in a situation where they cannot sell their house because there would be too much debt to cover. If you cannot sell the house you are in, you cannot go out and buy a new one. The immobility of millions of homeowners being underwater will have some impact on sales.

Point five, there are a lot of ARMs that will be resetting next year, which will lead to more foreclosures, which leads to more inventory on the market and reduced prices. Indeed, TransUnion, the credit reporting agency, studied its database of 27 million consumer records and estimates that delinquent mortgages will DOUBLE by the end of next year. Yes, you read that right. If they are right, time to "hunker down" for a long one.

Of course there is the old "location" thingy. Undobtedly certain parts of the country will bottom before others, but I think we have a ways to go before you can call a bottom anywhere.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122818894948271631.html

China - Bad and Getting Worse

We are not the only country with real estate problems. China is having a hard time of it lately and is bound to see worse before it is over. They have some money to deal with it, but it is not likely to be enough.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/real-estate-woes-increase-depth-of.html

Recession - What Inning Are We In?

According to the NBER, the recession started a year ago, but that tells us very little about how far along we are at this point. Sure, you can look at the average length of recessions and say we should be done or nearly there, but tell that to someone who lived during the depression. I think you can guess where I am on this. Let's just say I have yet to buy my hot dog and beer. Others think we are early on as well. Based on housing, discussed above, I think they might be right, but you never know.

Junk Yards Are Going To Be Busy

Not much explanation needed here. 50% of U.S. companies have below investment grade credit ratings. The junk continues to get worse. And in case you are dense, this guy tells it to you in two languages.

http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2008/11/number-of-day-percentage-of-us.html

It's Official - We Have Recession!

Well it certainly took them long enough, but the NBER has now announced that we are officially in a recession and have been since December of last year. You may note we have not had two back-to-back quarters of contracting GDP (yet), but that is not essential to the call and is but one factor they consider. It may have taken them a year to call it, but at least this time they made the call before it was over. So much for all the political pundits who during the summer said all is fine. I guess you could say that the folks at NBER are just a bunch of whiners, but those Ivy League types don't take such talk kindly.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWOWWB3VGDCg&refer=home

So you know it is a tough day when a 9% drop in the market is just a drop in the bucket. What do you expect after five straight days of advances? The good news is that we only lost half of last week's gains. The bad news is that we lost half of last week's gains. And if you were gutsy enough to invest in financials, that index was down 17% today alone. Ouch, that's gonna leave a bruise!

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5GTywWoSgHQ&refer=home

So why such a big drop? Could be the official recession announcement, but I doubt it. Everyone knew it already. Could be that manufacturing shrank the most in the U.S. last month since 1982. That probably had a bit to do with it but it was mostly expected. Could be Meredith Witney's latest doom and gloom forecast for U.S. consumers. She forecast credit lines for consumers will shrink 45%, i.e. over $2 trillion, over the next 18 months. Now that would put a damper on things, wouldn't it. Then again, in the long run, less credit is a good thing. It was the overflow of cheap credit that got us here in the first place. Still, not what the market was expecting. And then you have another respected name banging that doom and gloom gong rather loudly. Paul Krugman did not have nice things to say in an interview on CNBC, but then again he is selling his new Depression oriented book, so who can blame - or believe - him. Nonetheless, basically boils down to bad getting worse. And with this major negative vibe happening, no wonder people decided to take some of last week's gains off the table.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a1KBBJn8ORc4&refer=home

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/paul-krugman-says-economy-in-steep.html

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/meredith-whitney-sounds-like-nouriel.html

While all these may explain the drop (in part) my favorite pick is Big Ben giving a speech. Seems that whenever Ben or Henry open their yap the market does not like what comes out. Probably because they are always talking about new ways to waste our money trying to stop the Sun from rising. I am not saying the government has no ability to help the situation, just that most of what they have done so far is good money after bad.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/12/helicopter-ben-pulls-out-bazooka.html

Tanta - So Long

For those who have been following me, I have repeatedly referred to Calculated Risk as my favorite site on following the real estate market meltdown and the following carnage. It also always had the best charts. Its one author, Dorris Dungey, otherwise known as Tanta, passed away yesterday from ovarian cancer. She will be sorely missed. If you question how good of a job she did, I have seen at least three or four blogs this evening singing her praise. She had a big following, including some leading economists.

Holiday Shopping

Tired of watching your stock lose value, then put it to use. CNBC has some nice helpful tables on what your shares can purchase. Of course, this is based on last Friday's close, so after today you may need a few more shares to fill your shopping cart.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/27888369