Ding, Ding, Ding - We Have A Winner!

Well, we finally got there.  GDPNow from the Atlanta Fed puts the 3rd Quarter GDP now at 1.9% annualized rate, half of where they started the 3rd quarter forecast at 3.8 %, just as I anticipated when they first put out their 3.8% figure.  And the fun part is the forecasting (or retro-casting at this point) is not over with.  They will continue regular adjusting this month and then occasionally providing revised figures going forward.  All of which I suspect will make the now 1.9% forecast look optimistic.  Perhaps a 2% target is proving a tad too much for the Fed.  After all, we are following the Japan playbook which now for a few decades has proven itself highly flawed and incapable of delivering the results that Keynesian economists predict.  Not sure why such economists are unwilling or incapable of seeing what is slapping them in the face.

https://www.frbatlanta.org/-/media/Documents/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow/RealGDPTrackingSlides.pdf

But it gets better.  Apparently dear Janet is reportedly considering letting rates sit where they are despite the economy running "hot" - yes, you read that right - as inflation targets are not being met.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-15/yellen-s-talk-of-hot-u-s-economy-extends-october-long-bond-rout

Has she seen corporate profits sinking for the past six quarters?  If that is a "hot" economy, I would hate to see a cold one, though I fear I will in the very near future.

But Perhaps I Am Wrong - 10/28/16 Update

It would seem that the economy had a bit of an uptick in the third quarter, as reported by Bloomberg:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-28/u-s-economic-growth-rebounds-on-boost-from-exports-inventories

Indeed, GDP rose at an annualized 2.9% rate, well above the GDPNow current forecast and above analyst expectations of 2.6%.  I note that .6% of that is due to inventory build, which while supporting GDP this quarter may dampen it next if that inventory is not sold, but still a solid advance so far.  Looks like Janet will get to raise her rates after all.  Wagers still seem to favor December over November for when that should happen.