Sunday, July 10, 2016

A Penny Saved is a Penny Wasted?

You would think after a few decades of empirical proof from Japan the Central Banks of the world would wake up to the fact that John Maynard Keynes may have been wrong - or at least that his theories were best applied in very limited situations for short periods.  But no, now with over $12 trillion in government bonds paying negative rates and savers being punished left and right, Keynes is ruling the roost.  For a perspective on some of the ills of this approach, the linked article explains it better than I can:

https://mises.org/blog/keynesian-blessing-americans-are-broke

I just wanted to throw a little more gas on this fire.  If the whole goal of the Keynesian approach is to reduce or eliminate savings and get people to spend their money, doesn't the focus today have to be on the top 1% of the economic ladder?  After all, according to Forbes, the wealthiest top 1% in the world now hold 50% of the wealth.  In my book, this means they have a whole lot of mula they ain't spending and if they are not spending it and it represents half the net worth of the globe, well Keynes must be rolling over in his grave.  So maybe Bernie was right and the federal government needs to either tax the money away from the 1% and give it to the poor souls who will spend it or somehow force the wealthiest bastards to spend the dough and not hoard it.

Not saying I agree with this strategy because I think Keynesian economics is a bunch of idiocy based on economists who think they can predict, and thus influence, how people act.  Obviously they need to go back and try again as they are not getting their prognostications right.  Does the average Joe on the street really go out and spend more when there is inflation because whatever it is will cost more a month from now or, alternatively, delay spending when there is deflation as it will get cheaper?  Seriously?!!  Ask said average Joe what the CPI rate is or what the CPI even represents - or for that matter which CPI he follows - and you will likely get an blank stare. Ask Joe if he follows the most common CPI-U and let him define it.  If Joe is on Social Security he may actually know what CPI-W is, or at least that it is going nowhere, as his annual benefit adjustments are tied to it, but I suspect beyond that most folks have little idea.  Sure most can likely recite there is not a lot of inflation right now according to government stats, but most do not care.  What they care about is their rent going up, affording car payments and school loan payments.  Whether that crock pot they are wanting will cost $2 more next year or $2 less is not controlling their spending decisions.

But hey, what do I know.  I am not an economist.  I am, however, someone who would like to invest and plan my finances wisely and doing so is virtually impossible with the Central Banks and governments around the globe screwing with and distorting everything.

Update 8/3/16

Looks like Bloomberg sees the 1% holding the wealth to also be a problem for Janet.  They must be one of the handful reading this blog.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-03/why-the-rise-of-the-one-percent-makes-janet-yellen-s-job-harder