No One is Listening

The government does have a handful of people worth listening to. While not always hitting the nail on the head, Sheila Bair, Chairman of the FDIC, seems to be more right than wrong, in my opinion. Now this may be a bit of Monday morning quarterbacking, but she is publicly pointing out how it would have been better to break up some of the financial institutions instead of propping them up with TARP. A wonderful idea that the Administration doesn't seem to be willing to confront. Of course, when you fill you house with people from the industry, what do you expect.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ajKGz8NRQipM

Did I Mention, The Recession is Over

You probably already know this, especially if you are part of the 10.2% unemployed, but everyone seems to be saying the recession is over. The NY Times notes this in the following article.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/14/business/economy/14charts.html?_r=1&ref=business

Indeed, even Europe has passed the downturn and is on the road to recovery. Don' t believe me, read this.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/britain-the-economic-sick-man-of-europe-1820527.html

Sure, the piece is a bit down on the prospects for the UK but most of the rest of Europe is just peachy.

Yep, that decides it, the recession is over and everything is fine. Why doesn't it feel that way?

Well, for plenty of people the recession has not ended and perhaps never will. They have hunkered down and will remain in that state for some time to come. Others have learned that being frugal is not the worst thing in the world, which of course is a matter of degree. There is a difference between frugal and true poverty. But for those getting by, just more cheaply, they are learning some of the joys of doing it yourself. My wife cannot understand why I like to mow the lawn, do the fall clean up, stain the deck and do other things around the house myself. In part it is the money I save but largely I just enjoy doing it. And if you can come up with projects that the whole family can do, so much the better.

http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2009/11/new-rallying-cry-for-americans.html

Disclosures: None.

Hide Any Sharp Objects

I have not posted for a while and am not intending to do so to any extent for a while. The bubble is being inflated big time and while the stimulus from the government is almost over, I expect there will be more stimulus next year as the economy falters. Right now it is difficult to segregate what should happen in the economy versus what is happening due to stimulus. Since I expect stimulus to continue now into 2010, I am not making any short term predictions.

Medium to long term, however, we are building one hell of a big new bubble. Seriously, with unemployment over 10%, housing prices down to where a record number of houses are under water and debt at record levels with relatively minimal personal deleveraging to date (and public debt going off the charts), I see a very large bubble surrounded by pins and needles. What I do not know is when this bubble will burst. But it will and when it does God save us all.

Disclosures. None.