Saturday, June 25, 2016

Apple Loses 100,000+ iPhone Customers!

In case you missed it, Apple's Chinese manufacturer of the iPhone, Foxconn, fired 60,000 workers and replaced them with robots. 

https://mishtalk.com/2016/05/26/we-need-new-labels-i-propose-100-robot-made/

Now if you figure that these workers and their families are all potential iPhone customers, or likely already have them and would be customers when it comes to replacing them, and that after being fired for robots they cannot afford such luxuries, then you can easily get to 100,000+ fewer iPhone customers.  Now they might secure other jobs, but as Mish points out in the linked article, these workers are in a city in China where thousands of other manufacturers are automating.  Moreover, companies are leaving China altogether as you do not need cheap labor if you do not need any labor, so automated factories are more efficient if they are built near the customers, like in Europe or the U.S.

For example, Adidas and other shoe manufacturers are gradually eliminating millions of shoe making jobs by building automated factories in Europe and elsewhere,.  So all those Adidas workers replaced by robots cannot afford iPhones and the 60,000 workers who made iPhones ain't going to be walking around in new sneakers either.

You see the problem here is that old supply and demand thingy is tied to those on the demand side of the equation having money.  The Central Banks around the world are kicking butt trying to get folks to spend money, which increases demand, which leads to more supply, which leads to more profits and which USED TO lead to more jobs, which leads to paychecks, which leads to more demand.  You take the more jobs aspect out of the equation and there is no money around to lead to more demand.  Indeed, you are stripping jobs and demand and taking the process in the opposite direction.  The whole capitalistic structure is shooting itself in the foot.  But hey, let the other companies hire people as we need to automate to enhance profits so that the 1% can be even richer. 

You tell me, how many iPhones and sneakers does that 1% need?

Obviously we cannot and will not stop progress in automation.  The challenge has been and will continue to be finding jobs for the millions that are and will be losing their jobs to machines.  For the U.S. it started as losing jobs to cheaper labor overseas, which is still an issue, but it is morphing into a global issue of losing jobs to machines.  We are getting more and more into a world where we do not need nearly as many people to supply the needs of the people.  This will be an ever increasing challenge for our "leaders," if you want to call them that.

Friday, June 24, 2016

Euuuuuu . . . I Smell Something Nasty

I won't repeat what is filling the wires everywhere you look about the EU and Brexit.  Rather, let me just note that the underlying problems with the EU structure, which in no small part led to Brexit, was not that difficult to see coming.  As I said in 2011::

"EU Splitting?
A full two years ago I posted a prediction that the EU will break up. I think I called it the time the EU losing the U. This was a post by me that got a lot of negative feedback then- as in it was an insane proposition. Let me simply say, I stand by my original proposition:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204010604576592830020996482.html "

And this post was referring back to a prediction I made at the end of 2008 for the year ahead.  I guess as most men, I was a bit premature:

"EU with no U. The strains on the EU have never been greater and Germany's reluctance to play ball with the rest of the union will, in my opinion, cause a rift that cannot be fixed. I doubt the EU will disband in 2009, but pressures will reach a critical point and it may well happen in 2010."

But alas, I must admit that my belief on the EU splitting was tied pretty much wholly to its financial structure.  Britain's vote was based on this in part no doubt, but I think the man or woman on the street is voting more for other reasons, like a desire to better control their borders and not wanting to cede as much control over their lives to the EU.  In scary times, folks like to have that old self-determination thingy, for better or worse, and letting the likes of Angela Merkel have a lot of influence over their lives was probably not sitting well.  And for Britain, I am thinking it is for the better - as apparently 52% of the people in Britain think as well.

https://mises.org/blog/brexit-individualism-nationalism-globalism-0

On the economic front, for example, you might have noticed a curious thing (curious that is for the Remain crowd); the UK stock market - FTSE 100 - was only down a tad over 3% (after an initial dive of 6%).  Indeed, it survived the day better than the DOW.  And compared to other EU stock markets, it ruled.  The German DAX 100 sank nearly 7% and the French CAC 40 was down a whopping 8%.  This could just be attributable to the pound dropping in a way Trump would describe as yuuuuge, which should strongly support UK exports.  I mean, they do have exports don't they.  Oh yeah, Rolls Royce is in Britain. They also make, uh, something else I am sure, like beer.  Whatever they make just got cheaper compared to most other currencies.

This is not to say the rest of EU will not impose trade barriers like tariffs and the like, but that is a two-way street and Britain did represent nearly fifth of the entire EU economy.  This will  indeed be interesting to watch. 

It will be especially interesting to see if other EU members follow the British lead, which I expect will indeed happen.  There are a bunch of unhappy voters in various countries it seems as elections in other parts of the EU over the past couple of years reflect a growing influence of the same type of sentiment the British populace just demonstrated.  Discontent voters are obviously making their voices heard on this side of the pond as well.  Interesting times.