Fancy That

It seems the Feds are doing what they can to insure the banks have large amounts of capital so they can withstand another bubble bursting. And it seems many folks are talking of a bubble bursting. Hmm, wish I had thought of that. Of course for the banks to get more capital means they have less to lend, which is not what the government wants. Oh what a wicked web we weave.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aP_4vjiIq7KU&pos=1

And the average investor seems to be catching on to the situation as they are fleeing to safer assets.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aXJtmYH1p85A&pos=2

And outside the U.S., Asia is not so good either. Down this week. Are we to the breaking point yet? I doubt it as I am a pessimist about doom and gloom. I have been calling this rally a bear market rally for eight months and have no confidence it will end soon. I only have confidence it will end and, increasingly, confidence that it will end in spectacular fashion. Fasten you seat belts.

Disclosures: none.

I Am Too Old For This $&!^

I turn 50 in two hours and 15 minutes - and probably will be there by the time I finish this post. So here I go. Let's start by noting real estate is still not doing so well. When the government is taking on or guaranteeing the vast majority of all loans, that cannot be a good sign. And when the FHA's insurance reserve ratio reaches a record low - well - figure it out for yourself.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aRsDeHu7ywas&pos=4

The government, by the way, is the taxpayers, yet we are not yet paying the price. We will, but not yet. The price is being paid by foreign governments in part, like China and Japan, and Obama for one is afraid that they may become afraid of our deficit spending. So, the question becomes, who pays for all these loans when - if - foreign governments stop buying Treasuries. The Fed, by the way, has been buying the most lately but they now have stopped doing so, for a while at least. We will see where the next shoe drops.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/11/obama-debt-could-cause-a-double-dip-recession.html

Now I am critical of Obama policies and I have nothing to dispute the arguments in the above link. Nor do I have anything to dispute what it said in the following. Indeed, I consider Geithner and Summers two of the worst things to happen to this country in a while. Only time will tell.


http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/11/democratic-rep-defazio-calls-for-geithner-and-summers-to-be-fired.html

Here I am literally minutes from 50 and I am looking at a failing economy on what I view as faltering life support that few other people seem capable of seeing at the moment. Don't know if age is making me wiser or senile.

Pay It (Borrow it) Forward

It appears that the first time home buyers tax credit had its intended consequences and its unintended consequences as well. The credit undoubtedly increased sales, at least some, but, just like the cash-for-clunkers program, has borrowed sales from the future, as opposed to creating new buyers. Though the program was extended, its impact on sales seems to have come to a close. Only time will tell.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/11/mba-purchase-applications-fall-to-12.html

If you are not convince yet, don't forget that the government's bogus unemployment rate is 10.2% and add that a million, yes one million, will exhaust their unemployment benefits (if not extended) in January, and you have cause to celebrate - not.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/11/one-million-workers-to-exhaust.html

Okay, enough bad news for this year of my life. Disclosures: None.