"All's Well That Ends!"

No, I did not leave off a word from the famous quote.  This is my new saying and I am saying it today on the U.S. economic situation.  The Fed has distorted the economic world we live in so completely that there is no solution except for the markets to crash and burn and hopefully, just hopefully, we will learn some lessons and not let the Fed repeat this nonsense.  We do not need to push people to spend money they do not have and punish them for daring to save money.  We do not need to give interest free loans to corporations to buy back their own stock and artificially support overinflated stock prices and reward executives with big bonuses.  We do not need to be a nation of extreme debt.

We need instead to let people do what our parents taught us, which is the opposite of what the Fed wants; build a good savings and live within your means.  We need to let free markets be free with poorly run corporations going out of business, opening the way for honest, innovative corporations investing in our future. We need corporations with poorly conceived business models not to get dirt cheap financing to pursue their schemes for naught.  We need to let market forces do their natural work and get the government and the Fed out of it.  Unfortunately, I truly believe it will take a near disaster at this point to teach us this lesson.  Indeed a recession of epic proportions is needed and, like it or not, it is upon us sooner than we would like.  I am going out on a limb here and predicting just such a recession beginning in the last half of this year.  And I will be surprised if the markets do not crash before this quarter is out.  So then we will get to the bottom line and truly see if all's well that ends.

My hope is that a recession now will give some smart Presidential candidate who understands the situation an opportunity to capitalize on it and use it as a basis to garner a groundswell of support for a better structure.  Politicians love to campaign for change and nothing prods people into wanting change more than a recession.  We can only hope and pray - and vote!

So it  will not end well, but it most certainly will end.  We have to start somewhere.

Okay, so at this point I could start waxing poetic about a Phoenix rising from the ashes, attach a clip of some group singing "We Shall Overcome" or leave you with some touching quote to drive home my point.  On the latter, pick whichever one of the following quotes you think fits best and stick with it (or not).  They are from such intellectual notables as Wayne Gretzky, George Clooney and Babe Ruth, so you can't go wrong here.

"Experience teaches slowly, and at the cost of mistakes." James A. Froude

"Instead of 'stimulating' a recovery, the Feds have 'simulated' one.  Bill Bonner

"Failure happens all the time. It happens every day in practice. What makes you better is how you react to it." Mia Hamm

"Failure is the key to success; each mistake teaches us something." Morihei Ueshiba

"I've come to believe that all my past failure and frustration were actually laying the foundation for the understandings that have created the new level of living I now enjoy." Tony Robbins

"You’ll always miss 100% of the shots you don’t take." Wayne Gretzky

"Success is often achieved by those who don't know that failure is inevitable." Coco Chanel

"You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space." Johnny Cash

"Forget about the consequences of failure. Failure is only a temporary change in direction to set you straight for your next success." Denis Waitley

"What would life be if we had no courage to attempt anything?" Vincent van Gogh

"I really don't think life is about the I-could-have-beens. Life is only about the I-tried-to-do. I don't mind the failure but I can't imagine that I'd forgive myself if I didn't try." Nikki Giovanni

"No man ever achieved worth-while success who did not, at one time or other, find himself with at least one foot hanging well over the brink of failure." Napoleon Hill

"It is hard to fail, but it is worse never to have tried to succeed." Theodore Roosevelt

"Do one thing every day that scares you." Eleanor Roosevelt

"A person who doubts himself is like a man who would enlist in the ranks of his enemies and bear arms against himself. He makes his failure certain by himself being the first person to be convinced of it." Ambrose Bierce

"Don't be afraid of missing opportunities. Behind every failure is an opportunity somebody wishes they had missed." Lily Tomlin

"I can accept failure, everyone fails at something. But I can't accept not trying." Michael Jordan

"Our greatest glory is not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall." Confucius

"Try a thing you haven’t done three times. Once, to get over the fear of doing it. Twice, to learn how to do it. And a third time to figure out whether you like it or not." Virgil Thomson

"Remembering that I'll be dead soon is the most important tool I've ever encountered to help me make the big choices in life. Because almost everything - all external expectations, all pride, all fear of embarrassment or failure - these things just fall away in the face of death, leaving only what is truly important." Steve Jobs

"One does not discover new lands without consenting to lose sight of the shore for a very long time." Andre Gide

"The only failure is not to try." George Clooney

"Fear is only as deep as the mind allows." Japanese Proverb

"If you're doing your best, you won't have any time to worry about failure." H. Jackson Brown, Jr.

"Inaction breeds doubt and fear. Action breeds confidence and courage. If you want to conquer fear, do not sit home and think about it. Go out and get busy." Dale Carnegie

"Take risks: if you win, you will be happy; if you lose, you will be wise." Anonymous

"We learn wisdom from failure much more than success. We often discover what we will do, by finding out what we will not do." Samuel Smiles

"Fear is the main source of superstition, and one of the main sources of cruelty. To conquer fear is the beginning of wisdom." Bertrand Russell

"Failure is success if we learn from it." Malcolm Forbes

"I've missed more than 9000 shots in my career. I've lost almost 300 games. 26 times, I've been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I've failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed." Michael Jordan

"He knows the water best who has waded through it." Danish Proverb

"Never be afraid to try something new. Remember, amateurs built the ark; professionals built the Titanic." Anonymous

"I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain." Frank Herbert

"Failure is a detour, not a dead-end street." Zig Ziglar

"Success isn't permanent and failure isn't fatal." Mike Ditka

"Never let the fear of striking out get in your way." George Herman "Babe" Ruth

"The only real failure in life is not to be true to the best one knows." Buddha

"Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts." Winston Churchill

"Develop success from failures. Discouragement and failure are two of the surest stepping stones to success." Dale Carnegie

"The greatest mistake you can make in life is to continually be afraid you will make one." Elbert Hubbard

"For every failure, there's an alternative course of action. You just have to find it. When you come to a roadblock, take a detour." Mary Kay Ash

"Most great people have attained their greatest success just one step beyond their greatest failure." Napoleon Hill

"One who fears failure limits his activities. Failure is only the opportunity to more intelligently begin again." Henry Ford

"No man is a failure who is enjoying life." William Feather

"Failure doesn't mean you are a failure it just means you haven't succeeded yet." Robert H. Schuller

"My great concern is not whether you have failed, but whether you are content with your failure." Abraham Lincoln

"Do not fear mistakes. You will know failure. Continue to reach out." Benjamin Franklin

Say What?

So, can someone explain to me how the following headlines on Bloomberg today can at all be read as being consistent?  First, let's start with a headline and article on what the Fed is going to talk about when it meets this week:

"The Fed Is Closer to Hitting Its Inflation Target Than People Think"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-27/the-fed-is-closer-to-hitting-its-inflation-target-than-people-think

Fair enough.  I don't believe it but I do believe they have bogus stats that they might try to rely on to support an interest rate hike, which they desperately want to do.  Unfortunately, by September, it will be too late for them to justify any hike and they will be considering another round of QE instead.  Part of the reason why can be seen in other headlines of Bloomberg this morning, such as:

"These 10 States Will Be Hurting the Most After the Commodities Meltdown"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-27/these-10-states-will-be-hurting-the-most-after-the-commodities-meltdown

This particular article recounts how commodities across the board are down, many to extremes.  It refers to the meltdown as brutal and notes that Bloomberg's own commodity index is at a 13 year low.  Yep, sounds inflationary to me.

And then there is that little old China thingy.  Bloomberg also notes that China's markets were down just a tad today:

"China Has Biggest One-Day Stock Crash Since 2007"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-27/chinese-stock-index-futures-drop-before-industrial-profits

Indeed, the Shanghai stock market was down nearly 9% and one would likely see far worse but for the 10% cap on the amount a given stock can drop in a day.  A full 1700 stocks reached this limit today.  But hey, we're immune to what happens in China, right?

Let's just take a gander at other stock markets and see.  In the U.S., the Dow is 5% off its high for the year, Nasdaq 4% off and S&P 3% off, with most of these losses in the past week.  Indeed, each is off nearly 1% today as I write this, following an equally depressing drop last Friday.

Let's not forget the strengthening dollar either.  Tends to make imports cheaper and to dampen exports.  Last I checked, neither of these results is inflationary.  But hey, what do I know.  The stats the Fed is looking at must be a lot more accurate.  I'm just a dumb turd trying to figure things out and should stand in silent awe of Yellen.