Monday, July 27, 2015

Say What?

So, can someone explain to me how the following headlines on Bloomberg today can at all be read as being consistent?  First, let's start with a headline and article on what the Fed is going to talk about when it meets this week:

"The Fed Is Closer to Hitting Its Inflation Target Than People Think"


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-27/the-fed-is-closer-to-hitting-its-inflation-target-than-people-think

Fair enough.  I don't believe it but I do believe they have bogus stats that they might try to rely on to support an interest rate hike, which they desperately want to do.  Unfortunately, by September, it will be too late for them to justify any hike and they will be considering another round of QE instead.  Part of the reason why can be seen in other headlines of Bloomberg this morning, such as:

"These 10 States Will Be Hurting the Most After the Commodities Meltdown"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-27/these-10-states-will-be-hurting-the-most-after-the-commodities-meltdown

This particular article recounts how commodities across the board are down, many to extremes.  It refers to the meltdown as brutal and notes that Bloomberg's own commodity index is at a 13 year low.  Yep, sounds inflationary to me.

And then there is that little old China thingy.  Bloomberg also notes that China's markets were down just a tad today:

"China Has Biggest One-Day Stock Crash Since 2007"


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-27/chinese-stock-index-futures-drop-before-industrial-profits

Indeed, the Shanghai stock market was down nearly 9% and one would likely see far worse but for the 10% cap on the amount a given stock can drop in a day.  A full 1700 stocks reached this limit today.  But hey, we're immune to what happens in China, right?

Let's just take a gander at other stock markets and see.  In the U.S., the Dow is 5% off its high for the year, Nasdaq 4% off and S&P 3% off, with most of these losses in the past week.  Indeed, each is off nearly 1% today as I write this, following an equally depressing drop last Friday.

Let's not forget the strengthening dollar either.  Tends to make imports cheaper and to dampen exports.  Last I checked, neither of these results is inflationary.  But hey, what do I know.  The stats the Fed is looking at must be a lot more accurate.  I'm just a dumb turd trying to figure things out and should stand in silent awe of Yellen.

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