Here's the deal, I used to blog pretty much daily as I believed it made a difference. People were listening. I did and still believe I was reporting accurately on fundamentals but I am now convinced that government stimulus and other factors can mask the fundamentals for a very long time. How long - years easily, and I fear perhaps much longer. And I am also convinced our government and others are hell bent on building a new bubble. I am not saying their intent is to build a bubble, just that this is what they are doing whether they realize or not. And so here we are left looking at tea leaves on (a) what the fundamentals say and (b) how does all the noise from government stimulus and actions by other interested players affect the outcome. I can only speak to (a) and note that eventually - in time - (a) always wins out. How long only time will tell.

So on (a) I still see nasty fundamentals. Housing still in a slump,with foreclosures still high, commercial real estate still in the slumps, unemployment still high, mortgage rates rising, and few fundamental reasons for short term optimism. And with government stimulus slowly being taken away, you guess what is about to happen.

Disclosures: None.

Just Checking In

Nothing much to post other than some idle thoughts. From what I can see we have avoided financial armageddon (hats off to Michael Panzner). The big financial institutions have built up capital big time. Now they are not lending it, which tells you a lot. They should be able to repay TARP and other funds in time and gradually survive the bad crap on their books. Nothing like Uncle Sam giving out money with virtually no interest to get you through the tough times.

Yet with the worst avoided, folks seem to be ignoring the big picture. China is in a major bubble, Japan is -well - still where it has been for 20 years, the PIIGS aren't flying and we are inflating a new bubble here at home. The fundamentals still suck big time and will for some time and we are not focused on the fundamentals. In my humble opinion we are entering into a very long phase of economic stagnation, both in the U.S. and Europe, which means those that sell us stuff are not going to do much better. NO market predictions here, just expecting that we are in for many years of no fun.

Disclosures: None.