Who Are You Voting Against?

This is perhaps the first election I can recall where probably the majority of votes cast for either side  are likely to be more a vote against the opponent than for a candidate.  Polling results a few months ago showed nearly half the voters to be more voting against someone than for someone and with events since then I suspect it is a higher percentage today.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-anti-vote-idUSKCN0XX06E

This is especially the case for Trump, who seems to be "cratering" in the polls:

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-08-05/-trump-is-cratering-new-polls-signal-deep-trouble-for-republican-nominee

It seems voters are having some Trumpidation in supporting the golden hair wonder.  His off the cuff insulting remarks may not be working as well as they used to.  And Hillary suits the old lawyer joke quite well on "You know how to tell when a lawyer is lying? Her lips are moving."

So I have some sage advice to both candidates as they proceed in their campaigns.  Four little words I once heard a mother lovingly say to her child who was being a tad disruptive.  Donald and Hillary - "Shut the Butt Up!"  Talking, speeches, tweets and the like are simply driving more voters away from you.

Jobs Here, Jobs There, Jobs Everywhere!

Well, that's two months in a row that the fine folks at BLS have shocked us with blow out jobs numbers.  Expectations among "economists" were in the range of 185,000, with the top end prediction around 240,000, but just like last month the BLS shocked to the upside with a reported 255,000 in job gains.  And they revised prior months and added another 18,000 jobs there.  It's time to party!  And indeed, it looks like the market is set to do just that with futures up nicely as we head into the opening bell.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-05/payrolls-surge-as-u-s-hiring-gains-broad-based-for-second-month

Now a cynic might suggest that someone is painting the tape for the upcoming election.  Thank goodness I am not a cynic and I can sleep at night and fully buy into the numbers the BLS is spewing. 

And the good news spew does not stop there. Look as well at wage growth, up a respectable .3% from the month before.  Take that cynic!  Though you should ignore that somehow tax withholdings on wages for July were mysteriously down 1.0% YOY despite all the new jobs and wage increases.  I mean, that must just be an anomaly or taxes going down, right?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-04/ahead-tomorrows-jobs-number-big-red-flag-tax-withholdings-slump

Now on the market reaction.  Yes, it looks like we are going to see a nice bump this morning but then, then, then it may just occur to some that dear old Janet has no real reason to justify not raising the rates at the next Fed meeting in September.   Sure, I am sure some economic disaster in some foreign land will give an excuse or two, but holding pat will be extremely difficult for her to justify with back-to-back incredible jobs numbers.  Certainly the price of gold, down over 1% as I write this, suggests someone anticipates a rate increase is in our future.

Noon Update

Looks like Bloomberg is once again reading my blog and following my lead on financial topics of interest:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-05/fed-comfort-in-upbeat-jobs-data-doesn-t-guarantee-september-hike