Here We Go Again

The GDPNow forecast for the 4th quarter surged today to 3.1%, largely on the strength of auto data, and we all know auto sales are doing amazingly well.

https://mishtalk.com/2016/11/04/gdpnow-4th-quarter-estimate-surges-to-3-1-on-strength-in-autos/

But wait, why are auto sales doing so well?  Maybe it is the fairly massive inventory build?  Could it be the incredible incentives being offered?  Perhaps the 0% interest 0% down offers?  Perhaps the 72 month loans to anyone who can fog a mirror?  Does this sound a tad like housing did 8 years ago?  You decide, but in doing so you might want to take a glance at some data on repossessions - that with modern tech are quite easy to do as they can track your car's location and open it easily.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-02/more-signs-strong-us-consumer-emerge-auto-repossessions-soar

Whether the auto industry continues or not, I am going to make a forecast, just like last quarter, that the GDPNow number for the 4th quarter in three months will be half of what it is today.