The Good News

Calculated Risk is one of my favorite sites, which you would know well if you follow me. They always have excellent charts and pass on well researched information, as opposed to me who has to do this part time in my free time, which is becoming rare. In any event, Calculated Risk has some promising news, which is based pretty much totally on terrible news to date. Based on the drop in car sales, the drop in new home sales and the drop in single home starts, it is obvious that either the declines have to slow sharply or might actually bottom out in 2009. At least one cannot physically continue at its 2008 rate of drop, new single family starts, as it would go negative. Another, new home sales, as a practical matters will not continue its decline rate as it would go down to nearly zero. And on the car front, well, it could continue lower but at some point cars simply wear out, so the rate of decline there should also abate, if not reach bottom, in 2009. But before you go out and buy stock in GM or Ford, keep in mind that car sale declines perhaps bottoming out does not tell you what companies will be selling the cars. Hyundai just had a nice report.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/02/looking-for-sun.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aSLoamzfZmus&refer=home

Then again, on the car front, perhaps things could get worse. There could certainly be some bankruptcies.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/02/downward-spiral-in-autos-gm-49-ford-40.html

Disclosures: None

P.S. I am starting to get tired of the occassional negative comments I get on Seeking Alpha. But for the 28 cents I have made in advertising dollars (they only pay when you get to $100) I would hang this up. Let's do the math, hundreds of hours of reading and posting for 28 cents. Perhaps I need a new profession. As they say, don't quit the day job. Seriously, I appreciate comments good and bad; they simply confirm my thesis that no two investors (or economists) in a room of 100 will agree to a proposition. And I thought attorneys were bad.