New Year's Prediction Number 8: No U in EU

At the beginning of the year I made eight predictions. My predictions have to date been my most commented upon article at Seeking Alpha. One of the predictions that got the most negative responses was number eight, as follows:

"EU with no U. The strains on the EU have never been greater and Germany's reluctance to play ball with the rest of the union will, in my opinion, cause a rift that cannot be fixed. I doubt the EU will disband in 2009, but pressures will reach a critical point and it may well happen in 2010."

The comments noted that the EU will never break up and that my prediction was wholly misguided. I have to admit that the EU totally disbanding is indeed a long shot, but Germany's reluctance to play ball and the rift it could cause were not totally off base.

Well, Eastern Eurpean members of the EU are being particularly hard hit with this recession and they are seeking help that the rest of Europe, Germany in particular, are not willing to give. And the signs of protectionism within the "union" are growing. I think I smell a rift.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=arVsQ74Xzah0&refer=home

Disclosures: None.