NOT!!

I keep seeing supposed green shoots and am not yet buying it. Here are some green shoots from some people that I have quoted in the past. They think the economy may be on the brink of recovery:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aXgtL5wHZN8k

I beg to differ. Our debt levels are still near record levels on consumer levels (as in we have barely begun to deleverage) and our public debt is shooting through the roof. Golly gee, that spells recovery in my book. And the S&P is doing so well lately that the PE is 24. That is a PE for good times, very good times, so the good news is more than built in. Personally, given the debt loads in the U.S., there is no recovery in sight unless another country leads the world from to depths - right. I am not demeaning other countries but none that are doing economically well, which is very few, have the economic weight to correct a world wide recession. Sorry folks, from my view we have a stimulus based bounce, perhaps bubble, but nothing more. I have been wrong before, but I have been right before too. You decide.

Disclosures: I did increase my put options this week, but not in any stock I have discussed lately. By the way, my older put options for this year are all down over 80%, so this is not a recommendation.