Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Eventually They Will Huff and Puff and Blow This House Down

I have read quite a bit today from folks who have been studying the Greece rescue package for the flaws. As I watched the package announced over the weekend it seemed like watching a rerun. The process seems to be repeating itself in this recession repeatedly. (1)Bold move, (2) good market response, (3)time for considered thought and analysis, and (4) a long slow - then faster - drift back down the tubes. One and two are done, three is in process, and four will start very soon. I will not be surprised if four starts this month (if not this week) or next, my question is how soon the "then faster" part comes. The "bold" moves in Europe will provide Greece support for a while and may buy some time for the other PIIGS to get their houses of hay in order (perhaps a year or two), but you cannot paint a hay house to look like bricks and make it so. Sooner or later they will know the bricks are fake and start huffing and puffing- and that could be a matter of weeks or months, despite a package that could support Greece for a few years.

Disclosures: None.

No comments: