Thursday, June 18, 2015

A Holiday Gift From the Feds This Year

So Bloomberg is referring to Yellen now as a "Decemberist," suggesting a rate hike is not likely in the offing until the end of the year. 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-18/three-hints-yellen-dropped-that-the-fed-might-not-raise-rates-in-September

So first we were looking at one in June and one later in the year, and then none in June but pretty sure one in September, and now we are thinking maybe December, with two of 17 fed members against any this year.  Looks like my prediction of no increase this year - and probably none next year -that I made back in April is looking pretty good at the moment.  Mind you, I said back then they should do an increase - and should have years ago - but given their Keynesian thinking and the direction of things economically I did not see it in the cards then and do not see it in them now.

Of course, with the Nasdaq setting new records today, I guess never say never, but that was in no small part due to the Fed standing pat for longer, so unlikely a market reaction to the "good" news from the Fed is going to cause the Fed to change its tune.  I do not see the stock rise lasting too long either way.  The DAX in Germany is in an official correction (albeit only back to levels seen in February and still over 10% over where it started the year),  and China markets are having the worst weekly drop in six years, so things are starting to pop.  Just a matter of time my friends, just a matter of time.

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