Saturday, March 26, 2016

Obamacare - What's Up With That

So I read this recent article on how Obamacare is costing boat loads of money and premiums are up across the board:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-25/thanks-obamacare-what-americans-spent-most-money-2015

Now I agree that health care is undoubtedly a big driver of what little inflation the government has reported.  But the question that I do not think can be answered yet is why and will this continue.  The reason I say this is largely due to anecdotal evidence but I think it is enough to raise the question.

I primarily raise the question based on a comment from a doctor.  He told me that doctors and hospitals are incredibly busy following implementation of Obamacare as there is this massive population of patients who simply did not seek medical attention before because they did not have insurance and could not afford it.  They only went to get help when they had no choice and then it was commonly to the emergency room on Medicare or Medicaid's dime.  Now that many of them have the coverage they are getting physicals and checkups and, guess what, problems are being discovered that need to be dealt with.  And these problems are leading to more payouts by insurers than perhaps they anticipated because I suspect the insurers did not factor this into their initial premiums,  either because they did not anticipate the increase or intentionally ignored it to keep initial premiums low to get things started.  Either way, they are having to increase premiums to pay for all these people who have old, festering, unattended to problems that are now being addressed.

So again the question I pose is whether this initial significant increase will continue or level off in time, and I suspect only time will tell.

Meanwhile the good news might be that the 4th Quarter GDP estimate was just increased to 1.4% with the "bulk" of the increase coming from "services," which is in no small part healthcare. 

http://www.shopfloor.org/2016/03/fourth-quarter-2015-real-gdp-revised-higher-at-1-4-percent-growth/

So Obamacare may be achieving what the Fed so desperately has tried to do.  QE and ZIRP may not get folks to spend but require them to get health insurance and by God they will use it!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-26/healthcare-about-surpass-housing-biggest-source-american-growth

Then again things are not going so honky dory lately over at the Atlanta Fed with its GDPNow forecast.  Its forecast for the 1st quarter 2016 went from a sweet 2.3% two weeks ago on March 11 to a somewhat more sour 1.4% March 24.  Hopefully that direction will not continue.  We shall see.

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