Blogging West Virginia Style

I sit here about a mile from any road with no cell service, with my wife pasting our faces onto elf bodies that will soon dance on her blog site. Life doesn't get any better than this! But I do have internet access. Bless my mother-in-law for getting wi-fi. There is a Santa Claus!!

Social Unrest

No, I am not talking about that feeling that sets in after two days cooped up with the in-laws. That does not start until day four of five usually. I am instead talking about on the larger scale. I have discussed some social unrest taking place in China. The people there do not have the channels we have for addressing their outrage. They cannot contact their Congress men and women and rant, only to receive back a standardized email. They cannot take out their feelings by their vote. All they can do is protest, and that is difficult too.

Well, China is not alone in social unrest. Unrest in Greece has been on the news and tied to the police shooting a 15 year old. Well, it could have deeper roots than this. And it could be - and become - far more widespread, as Michael Panzner reports. Could this youthful outrage start up here across the pond? If things get worse and the government continues with bone-head moves, I would think so. For now, however, I believe youth here are happy to see Obama elected and will bite their tongues for a while to see what he is able to accomplish. If he does not readily bring the change he said he would . . . well . . . did I mention Canada is a nice place to live.

http://www.economicroadmap.com/2008/12/spreading-far-and-wide.html

Who Wants To Be A Cockroach

I recommend this piece because, if for no other reason, it is very well written. It likens hedge funds to furu (have to read it to understand) and long term stodgy investors to cockroaches. I especially like the line about how cockroaches never take over the world, they just inherit it. Truly is a good read. Point of the article, or at least one of them, is to point out that many corporations today are also like furu, very specialized. Does not take too much of a change in economics to destroy their business model and their profit.

http://ultimibarbarorum.com/2008/12/18/i-want-to-be-a-cockroach/

The Blame Game

This will go one for decades to come, so it will certainly be worth mentioning every now and then. Who is to blame for our current mess? A lot of people start their list with Greenspan. Some with Clinton. Some with Gramm. But probably most start with a single letter - W. Mind you, there is plenty of blame to pass around and all the people on the list get a their fair share, but I suspect W is as guilty a player as any and guiltier than most.

Barry Ritholtz did a nice piece commenting on the NY Times, which did not do as good a piece, placing the blame on dear old George. I am posting it because I agree with it. I do sometimes post things I do not wholly agree with, but not everyone can be as right as me.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/nyt-blaming-bush-for-the-wrong-things/

No %$^& Sherlock

Two things about this article get me irked. First they title it "New figures show that recession is deepening," but then all they report on is economists' predictions for the upcoming week. Now part of me says this is the UK, so what do I care, but "news" outlets on both sides of the pond do this regularly, which leads to my second irk; the economist have been wrong and behind the curve on this for a long time, generally speaking. Sure you can point to a few with their heads on straight. Those looking at the two-plus-two facts I discussed the other day. But many of these experts seem to ignore the data and predict rosy seas ahead.

The attached notes that economists, finally, are getting gloomier about the outlook. Boy I wish I had seen that coming. I could have protected my portfolio better with that knowledge.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5375480.ece

You Ponzi

Some of us build fame and fortune in different ways. A few, like Madoff, start with fortune (for many), which leads to fame (for him), and then lose fortune (for many), which leads to even more fame (for him). The fame is, unfortunately, especially long lasting when it is based on misconduct.

Well, they keep calling the Madoff scheme a Ponzi scheme, so it would seem that Bernie's ability to get the most fame out of this is preempted. It already has a name thanks to Charles Ponzi. Madoff seems to have perfected it a bit better, making it last an unbelievably long time, but Ponzi still gets his name pinned to it. If you are unfamiliar with Charles Ponzi, here is a nice article on the financial magic he performed in all sorts of investments.

http://timesonline.typepad.com/timesarchive/2008/12/charles-ponzi-a.html#more

As the derivatives market has shown us, we are all Ponzis now!

Disclosures: None