Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Hate It When I Am Right

literally. I am no big fan of doom and gloom and am hoping for a bright spot to show up soon. But I read the cards as I see them and lately not getting many good cards. I like to play blackjack in Vegas, though I have not been there in some time. Those that gamble know you have hot streaks and then some that are, let's say, not so hot. The former is what keeps people coming back and the latter is what prohibits them from coming back more often. Well, we are in the latter right now, from what I can tell.

In a word - housing

Another dismal performance by the housing sector. As Bloomberg reports:

"Sales of single-family houses in the U.S. dropped in November by the most in two decades and resale prices collapsed at a pace reminiscent of the Great Depression, dashing speculation the market was close to a bottom."

Now I am not going to say I told you so, but heck, why not. I told you so!
This is not tea leaves, it is just two-plus-two.

Another key point here is that foreclosures and short sales accounted for 45% of the sales, according to Bloomberg. Not a pretty sight. Actually, I beg to differ. I think it is a pretty sight.

We need to get there and the faster the better. We especially need to do so before the government tries some stupid tricks to prop up mortgages or prevent foreclosures. I have friends and family on the verge but that does not change the fact that the pain is inevitable.

This reminds me of a child with a splinter. They would rather live with the pain of it for days to avoid the minor immediate pain associated with removal. They know eventually it has to come out, but they try to avoid that day of reckoning as long as possible. Well, in my book, the sooner the better, so the dismal housing report is a good thing, believe it or not. How is that for a silver-lining?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adkUcqYlJVRA&refer=home

I will post more later after everyone goes to bed but the wife is complaining about the "financial guru" (she does not mean this) doing his blog on vacation while dinner is being prepared.

Disclosures: None

1 comment:

Midnight said...

Watch the homebuilders start to go under in 2009. Will that too call for a "bail out?"