China in Trouble

I am likely flying to China in the next three to four months and I am not sure what to expect. Their economy is definitely not doing well. Though the GDP is growing at a rate that would make us jealous, their need to supply tens of millions of new jobs each year to support their economy means these numbers for them are recessionary.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/01/china-gdp-increased-at-68-annual-rate.html

Commercial Real Estate Still Hurting - Big Time

There is at least some hope that infrastructure spending will aid companies focued on commercial real estate. It will create demand for certain contractors, certain architects, certain raw material suppliers and so forth. Not everyone who had focused on commercial real estate, however, will be helped. So what do they have to hope for - not much. If you want to know about CRE activity in the future, one indicator is architecture related expenditures. Right now, not good.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/01/architecture-billings-index-near-record.html

Disclosures: None