Just Trying To Help

I got a comment at Seeking Alpha today, and I quote:

"Can I start my very own blog by stating the obvious and then saying "I haven't a clue what to do with this info"?

Aside from the fact that the quotation mark should be outside the question mark (I had to go there to feel better), let me respond. This blog is not about individual advice on stocks. Unless you have not read my bio or the top of this blog page, let me note that I am not an financial advisor and am not qualified, in my own opinion, to give advice on individual investments. What I do try to do is provide what I think is relevant data for the decision making process and perhaps my take on same.

The above comment was in response to a post by me on an official at NAHB predicting a further decline in housing prices in 2009 of 29%. That to me is important, for the reasons I expressed in my post. First, insiders in the building industry are usually overly optimistic, so an insider being this negative is significant. If you need me to spell out why such as real estate declines lead to more bank problems, foreclosures, unemployment, etc. then you have not been reading this blog. Moreover, most of this is just simple logic. The comment above notes it is "obvious," but so what. If you missed the NAHB official's comment then I just gave you some potentially valuable information. Yes it is obvious, but if you missed it you just missed something that can "obviously" impact your investment decisions.

Now, admittedly, I noted I did not think the real estate decline in prices would be that bad and gave no explanation for this opinion, so I perhaps deserve some prodding there. This was me being lazy, which I will continue to be today. If you want the best data on real estate, I have long recommended Calculated Risk, the best real estate oriented site in my book. (Look there, I just provided more valuable information from my research). They certainly know more than me on this subject.

Finally, my post did give a take on the NAHB official's comment that was original to me, as far as I know, and I believe worth consideration. Everyone and their brother are lining up for handouts from the government. Perhaps if the real estate industry makes their problems look bad, they can convince someone in government to put them on the list for handouts. I am not saying this is the case, but a dismal forecast by someone who normally would be more optimistic might lead one to this conclusion. Otherwise, this is really bad news.

Bottom line, I try to pass on relevant information that I mine from my daily research and you need to decide what to do with it. I try to provide some logic for analyzing this data - or at least the logic I employ. Not always the right logic, but lately more right than wrong. Individually, I do make my own investment decisions on this information and I have made money in 2007, 2008 and so far in 2009. I worry sometimes about my own decisions for my own account, so I am not about to tell you how to invest your money. But for at least the past year the data I haved focused upon has been a good set of data to focus upon, and that is what I seek to contribute. Take it for what you will.

Disclosures: None