Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Input Needed!

I am asking my readers, however many there may be, for their input. I do this blog largely as it drives me to think through what I am reading and develop my own thoughts, which is what I am hoping you do with my articles. But here is my current dilemma. I like Obama. I want him to succeed. Heck, I want our country to succeed, but I am having increasing questions about any fiscal stimulus plan, and Obama's seems to be getting worse by the day. Not necessarily his fault as it is politics and getting this many idiots to agree to anything is problematic, but I am beginning to wonder if the plan, any plan, being defeated is, perhaps, a good thing.

Here is my two-plus-two logic on this, which has several points:

  • If we give the average family $1000 through tax rebates, how is that really going to "stimulate" the economy in any sustained way? We may see a small spike in spending for the few that spend a small percentage of what they are given, but $1000 a family just helps to pay off some debt (I think paying off debt or putting it to savings is how it should be spent but not how the government wants it spent).
  • How is giving big tax rebates to companies that have not even been making money going to help?
  • The housing and other bubbles for the past decade or so have been built on debt. So exactly how is a stimulus package going to revive the economy when credit - rightly so - has dried up? You spend the minimal fiscal stimulus and then you go back to no credit.
  • Why, oh why, would we want consumers to incur more debt? Why would we not want them to become more fiscally prudent? Why would we not want Americans spending less and saving more? All these in the long run are very, very good things, despite the short term pain, which, by the way, seems rather inevitable.
  • Why would the U.S. government take on massive debt - that really, really risks a massive devaluation of the U.S. dollar and, more importantly, a shift from the dollar being the currency of default to being one of many, in order to avoid the truly unavoidable?
  • Why postpone and perhaps increase the pain?

Finally, why do anything that simply tries to artificially support an unsupportable economy? Our problem is we built this house on debt and no longer have the credit to support the house. So why seek to support it?

Any answers are welcome. Those that agree (or disagree) are welcome to comment. I am thinking of a petition we could sign to Congress on the topic, but I know my late night emails to my Senators on the TARP were largely ignored. All I received, or should have expeceted, were emails and letters written for the (they thougtht) uneducated masses. Time to tell them othewise.

By the way, whoever is calling the plays in this Bowl for Ball State should look for a job with Paulson. He has not called anything right.

Again, this is a necessary adjustment. The pain is inevitable. The government needs to help with those losing jobs and home and relieve the pain there, but the rest of the pain is fool's gold to try to avoid.

4 comments:

One Dog said...

I read in a blog yesterday (don't remember which) that there is not an economic problem, there is a political problem, and I think that's true. The best thing would be to expose all the debt held by financial institutions to the light of day, accept that there will be failures and widespread and deep pain, protect individuals from harm to the greatest extent possible, and then get on with life.

CodyLe said...

I agree wholeheartedly with you on this, and I think one of the major problems is that, in my opinion, there is no precedent to fix a situation like this, so the go-to recession time policies aren't really applicable - most schools of economic thought are at a loss. I think we need to invest in something that's going to generate money and jobs, like say new and more efficient ways of transporting information (like light!) and green investments. Haha we need ideas, new ideas.

Craig Brown said...

Cody, I think you are right. To the extent the government needs to stimulate through deficit spending, it absolutely must be in ways that lead to potentially massive benefits going forward. This includes alternative energy, educataion and the like. That is what I liked about the Obama Plan. I am sad to see him drift away from these positions, even if it is to obtain Republican support.

Craig Brown said...

Cody, I think you are right. To the extent the government needs to stimulate through deficit spending, it absolutely must be in ways that lead to potentially massive benefits going forward. This includes alternative energy, educataion and the like. That is what I liked about the Obama Plan. I am sad to see him drift away from these positions, even if it is to obtain Republican support.