On The Fence

I sincerely apologize that I have been radio silent for the past week. In part it has been due to dealing with a new child but frankly it is mostly due to me not having any conviction on where we are economically. I have been seriously negative on our economic prospects this year, but lately there are signs of this recession (depression) reaching a bottom, so I have been sitting a bit on the sidelines. I still have extreme reservations on many fronts like unemployment, ARMs resetting, commercial real estate, consumer spending and the like, but certain economic signals are saying we are reaching or have reached a bottom.

I am not saying we are at bottom, but even if we are, the real question now (and for the next five to ten years) is, where do we go from here? People assume after a bottom that you resume you climb and go right back to where you were. Well, tell that to folks owning real estate in southern California or Las Vegas. Getting to the bottom is one thing and moving up from it is entirely different. I am sorry that I have to go and tend to family but I will be back and add more substance.