Yves has provided me with plenty of material over the past few months and Naked Capitalism is one of my favorite sites, so when Yves' book "Econned" (I like the title) comes out, I will be at the front of the line.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/07/book-countdown-3210.html
The Most Important Thing You Will Read This Year
I would like to take credit for this - or have done it myself - but here is a very, very informative piece from Zero Hedge on why any recovery for us, as in U.S., is - well - not happening any time soon. This whole piece is well worth the read. Seriously, this is not fluff, it is full of data. I like data; it is much better than "indicators." Indicators are flawed and expecting the stock market to predict a recovery is as reliable as expecting it to warn you of our last bubble - that worked out really well, didn't it.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/The%20End%20Of%20The%20End%20Of%20The%20Recession.pdf
The authors are inviting anyone and everyone to quote from them as long as we give them credit, so here are some of the fun parts:
- Consumer spending, 70% of the economy;
- Former IMF Chief Economist Ken Rogoff: “The kind of deleveraging we need to see takes six or eight years … The retrenching of the U.S.
consumer is a huge adjustment the whole world is going to have to
absorb”. - Ratio of U.S. licensed vehicles to ownership is still trough the roof despite a significant drop-off in sales;
- Household debt still near record highs;
- Business sales down 18% YOY, a record decline;
And that folks is just from the first 16 pages of a 72 page presentation. I was on the edge of my seat the entire time. I could add more here but it is a pretty quick read - bullet points and graphs - so I implore you to go and read it. You have to decide what you will do with these tea leaves. I know what I am doing.
Disclosures: None.
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