Death, Taxes and Greek Default

Two out of three of these are unavoidable. Ironically, the Greek debt problem proves that taxes are avoidable as tax evasion is apparently an art form in Greece, so that just leaves death and Greek default. Nothing new here, just folks coming to reality. Seriously, anyone with brain cells should be able to read the stats and know that Greek default is in the cards and has been for well over a year. Problem is, most people do not read the stats. Well, they are ugly - worse than even shave the dog's butt and teach him to walk backwards - ugly. It is just irrational to me that the folks in the EU are keeping it on life support. Either let it die or come together and do a Euro bond that all the EU supports (sorry Germany but it is time to decide whether to get out of the pool).

Now I am really pissed off. Five weeks ago I had to sell some put options on AMR - you know the parent of American Airlines. I had these for like a year and they were up a bit but I had to sell before I wanted as I had to pay a contractor for work on the house. Today, these options closed 157% higher than where I sold a mere five weeks ago. Unfreakin' believable! But I still have puts on Alcoa that did quite well today. Oh well.

Now here is the deal. I would assume that a Greece default is already baked in the cake on stock prices. It is not a big surprise as it has clearly been coming for over a year. I admit the fallout is what has folks disturbed and what that will be no one knows. We will see.

By the way, I have no doubt the EU will come in and save the day and not let Greece default - yet. Their banks have too much at stake and they are still in kicking the can mode. Greece will default, but probably not just yet.

Disclosures: none