Sunday, April 5, 2015

ECB Putten Der QE Into Der EU - das ist gut?

Bloomberg notes that the ECB plans for $1.1T QE in the EU are certainly fueling an already booming German economy:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-29/german-economy-finds-new-fuel-as-it-reaps-benefits-of-draghi-qe

The German economy is hitting on all fours and the future looks bright.  Unemployment is at record lows, the DAX is skyrocketing (Index up 23% this year), consumer spending is on the rise, exchange rates are good and every thing is just dandy.  Add in a little QE and ya, das ist gut.  There is that little Greece thingy, but relatively speaking Greece is economically a small country.  Of course it is part of the broader based PIIGS problem, which is part of the broader EU structural problem, which is part of the global economy problem, but Germany is immune to all that.  Und ya, deflation is behind it too.  After two months of deflation it showed .1% inflation.  Yeah!

One instigator for all this glowing success is likely the exchange rate with the U.S., it's number two trading partner after France.  Yet that might not continue be the benefit one would think.  I have not seen anything yet on the U.S. trade deficit shrinking in terms of what that means to Germany and the rest of the EU, but it has to mean something.  Imports in the U.S. were down over $10B in February, which is over 4%.  That is not a small drop, though one month does not a trend make.  The point being, however, that it will be exceedingly difficult for Germany to continue doing well when its trading partners generally are on the brink of a recession - if not already in one.  And last I checked, Germany's number one trading partner France, was not exactly booming - unless you like Zombies:

http://www.businessinsider.com/frances-zombie-economy-is-missing-out-on-europes-recovery-2015-3


I have little doubt Germany will have a wonderful 2015, especially benefiting more than most from the QE in the EU and that comparatively speaking it will continue to do better than the rest of the EU and most other countries as it has its fiscal house in pretty good order, but the DAX at levels 50% above the records set 2007 is unrealistic and likely due to there being no place else for a lot of people to put their money.  Und das ain't gut.

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