Friday, April 10, 2015

No Longer Greek to Me

I have written a fair amount on Greece over the years (who hasn't) and recently saw this nice piece by Felix Salmon that summarizes the situation in terms of where Greece is economically, how it got there and options forward.  If the whole situation is Greek to you, worth the read as the options forward could lead to some very interesting consequences:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3027366-greeces-debt-crisis-how-did-we-get-here

Too simplistic, you say.  Well if you want a somewhat more complex though still enlightening explanation of what is happening in the EU, albeit one focusing on Germany, then I recommend this: 

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/04/herr-schaubles-foibles-eurozone-rebalancing-conundrum.html

It makes a nice plausible explanation of why Germany is to blame for many of Europe's woes and is now focusing its trade surplus sights outside of Europe as its European trading partners can no longer afford to buy stuff with all the austerity measures sucking away available resources.  The author suggests that it may be Germany, not Greece, that decides to leave the EU first out of self interest.  Das ist sher interesting (no freakin clue if this is even close to an accurate German translation but I think it sounds good).

Have you noticed, a lot of folks are saying the EU does not seem long for this world.  Wish I had thought of that.  Kind of makes you wonder what is going to happen to all those Euro denominated bonds floating around these days, including some 100 year ones Mexico - México y sí 100 años - just sold.  Seriously folks, Mexico has been selling 100 year bonds at just over 4% denominated in euros.  That is a currency exchange rate play that is going to leave a bruise.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/04/milestones-in-bond-insanity-negative-10.html

 Oh, this is going to be very interesting indeed.

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