Saturday, July 4, 2015

It Was A Terrible, Horrible, Awful Economic Time in the U.S.

Walk with me as we think back to a rather unpleasant economic time here in the United States.  Virtually a million people all stopped working, looking for work or lost their full time jobs in a single month.  Factory orders dropped monthly over 5% month-after-month-after-month-after-month . . ..  Countries around the world were suffering equal or worse economic demise, unable to pay their staggering debts and with vast unemployment exceeding 25% in numerous places and over 50% for the young and eager to work.  The economic bastions of old were virtually all in decline and struggling to find answers.  The year - 2015.

The following link to an article by Lance Roberts is interesting as a whole but I focused on the second point about employment.  While part time employment went up in June nicely, full time jobs declined nearly 350,000 and a staggering 640,000 dropped out of the workforce altogether, which accounted for the lowering of the U-3 unemployment rate to 5.3%.  Yes, a dropping unemployment rate can be a bad thing if it is measured like U-3 is measured.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3301655-3-things-valuations-employment-sectors?ifp=0&app=1

On the factory orders front, here is an interesting post on Seeking Alpha that is an eye-opener regarding factory orders.  They have been solidly in one direction this year - down.  Say what you want about other supposedly rosy numbers, if people ain't buyin' it they ain't buidlin' it and from these numbers, not much is being built.  Now this is in part due to inventory buildups in the rosier past of 2014, but reality should have set in for businesses long before now.  Down 8% in May and a six month average of down 5.5%.  This is consistently bad.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3301425-factory-orders-fall-now-8-percent-economists-unconvinced

Now we just need to wait and see how long it takes the U.S. stock markets to start dealing with these realities.  They know the realities, but they also have ZIRP and lots of hedge funds soaking this rally for everything they can while they bow out (and short out).

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