Radio Slience

I went to a rather tragic family funeral this weekend and have been unable to post much. Got back late so I am just doing one link because not a lot of time to do other reads justice. Here it is on real estate. In my view we do not bottom until real estate bottoms. My sense is that we are getting nearing real estate bottom, at least in some markets, but we will likely stay near the bottom for a while due to foreclosure sales continuing. The bottom could perhaps come next quarter and if not probably the next after that but this will be at best a U shaped bottom and perhaps an L for a while. Prime mortgage defaults and Alt-As are probably not peak yet, but in most markets I think we are getting close. We will see. Any hoot, I hope we are close.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/04/housing-activity-forecast.html

Disclosures: None